Shareholding double drop, is it a big crocodile stir?

Shareholding double drop, is it a big crocodile stir?

[] Hong Kong just passed a recorded hottest Christmas, and rare snow in winter.

More than the cold wave, the Hong Kong people were shocked, and they were a sudden stock market, and the exchange market continued to fall.

  Nearly 5 trading days, the Hong Kong exchange fell to the evening, falling over 500 base points, close to the Red Line of the Golden Management Bureau to defend the joint exchange. Hong Kong stocks are even more fierce, and the Hengfeng is on the 20th, and the state-owned index is in the state.

Among the Hong Kong stocks, there were 1593, and many blue chip banks and real estate stocks were more than 50%. People can’t help but ask, is the international crocodile to hit Hong Kong? Do you have to stage the tragic scene of Soros in 1998? Hong Kong’s share of stocks, exchange double, naturally there is a short attack factor, contacting the big land of the RMB in the Hong Kong market, people’s direct response is to attack HK $ with a head attack. Compared to RMB, Hong Kong dollar has a lot of weaknesses.

First, Hong Kong offshore renminbi pool is small, about 78 billion, and more in the hands of Chinese banks.

If the central bank is intervened, as long as the renminbi is tightened, the renminbi is borrowed, and the cost of the model will be greatly increased, and the speculators will be disabled. The price paid is the shrinking of the RMB offshore market, but the speculation cannot be profitable, and the motivation is not enough.

  And Hong Kong dollars want to borrow home interest to deal with the speculation but it is difficult. The high interest rate implies that the RMB is not impacted, and it does not impacted the mainland’s entity economy. And Hong Kong dollar hometown is to move the whole body, stock market, property market, and enterprises. The home of the house can be affected, but the Hong Kong dollar speculation is forced back, but the speculatory home can be profitable through a large number of selling air port stocks, the so-called Sound East hits the West . In 1998, Sharos and other horses, Hong Kong was forced to increase interest by 300%, and the exchange rate was held, but the stock market fell, Hong Kong has paid a heavy cost. But that is a life and death, and to save lives, how big the price is borne. The hedge fund finally retreated, the money market loss, the stock market profit, and the general ledger did not suffer much loss.

Retreat is also due to another battlefield opportunity, not dead with Hong Kong.

  This Hong Kong share, the exchange double, and environmental factors are more important.

The first is that the US dollar enters the raising channel. Hong Kong and the US interbank interest rate are huge; if the Hong Kong real estate and stock market is weak, the RMB asset is declined, the passive appreciation of Hong Kong dollars is departed from the fundamental, which leads to the existence of capital flow in Hong Kong.

Capital externally includes capital flowing from Hong Kong, including capital flowing from the mainland.

After the depreciation of Renminbi in August 2015, due to the fixed rate of Hong Kong dollar and US dollar, a large capital from the mainland from the mainland to Hong Kong; and once the Hong Kong asset returns also declined, these funds have flowed out Hong Kong with international capital investment in Hong Kong, and jointly constitute HKDs. Depreciation pressure against the US dollar.

  From the Asian environment, the background of the financial turmoil is the large background of Asia, has accumulated a huge bubble. The speculation of this weaknesses. After nearly two years, the deployment of sniper programs, raising silver bombs, and has a scale, organized Each break, Thailand, South Korea, Indonesia, etc., and finally hit the Harbed, so that the momentum is like a rain, and the pressure is great.

  But recently Hong Kong’s financial turmoil, the speculatory family seems to step on one foot, non-organized massive attack. Because the Fed was started at the end of last year, the fever of the emerging market in the past few years was gradually evacuated. Hong Kong has been difficult to be alone; plus the recent mainland stocks, the economy is slight, the international oil price is more lower, speculached home On the occasion of the "soldiers and horses" in the peripheral market, he was robbed.

  Although it is difficult to say that the international crocodile is concentrated in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Finance and Economics is highly vigilant. Within three days, the three major financial officials in Hong Kong: Chen Delin, Director of the Financial Secretary, Chen Jiaqiang and the President of the KMS Bureau, and six issued a dialings, the caliber, "Hong Kong’s exchange rate is stable, financial and stable", fully expressing It defends the determination of HK $, confidence. After 98 years, Hong Kong’s stability is more robust than anyone. Today’s Hong Kong, as of December last year, the official foreign exchange reserve is $ 358.8 billion, which is equivalent to more than 7 times more of Hong Kong’s circulation currency, or approximately 48% of the Hong Kong dollar currency supplies, the foreign exchange reserve accounts for 113%.

As far as "ammunition" is sufficient, the model of speculating the fire-fried co-hook is still very low.

  In short, this Hong Kong stock market, the exchange market, the peripheral effect, the speculative attack. The global financial market turmoil caused by the Fed’s interest rate hike has not been done, and the Hong Kong financial market is only affected. The fundamentals are sluggish, the property market, exports, and tourism are not booming, but still maintain 2 to 3 percentage points. There is no big weakness, and there is no superheated bubble accumulation, the possibility of a feet is there, and the opportunity to be hit is not big.

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